Let the Stock Tell You What to Do | Tune Out The Macro Noise with Tony Gallea

In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by market veteran Tony Gallea, CEO of Working Profit and author of the classic investment text Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered. Recorded July 9th 2026. Tony draws on his illustrious 45-year career at Morgan Stanley to help investors tune out overwhelming macro noise and focus on locating structurally undervalued assets. We dig into his grounded take on the AI trade—likening generative AI to an overeager, unpaid intern prone to rookie mistakes—and analyze why the semiconductor boom is a classic "pig through the python" cycle. The conversation also explores Tony's early days updating printed Mansfield charts by hand in the late 1970s, his disciplined process for separating genuine value from dangerous value traps using activist catalysts, and why letting the stock price tell you what to do is vastly superior to getting lost in complex macro forecasting.

Working Profit newsletter https://workingprofit.com/
Contrarian Investing https://amzn.to/4peRYn5
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered https://amzn.to/4yfdZX3

📈 Topics Covered • Tony's realistic perspective on the AI trade: Treating large language models as eager, junior research interns whose work cannot be blindly trusted • The "pig through the python" capital expenditure cycle of data centers and semiconductors, drawing stark psychological parallels to the 2000 dot-com bubble • Embracing a pure stock-picker's mindset: Looking at the market as a fluid system of "source of funds vs. use of funds" to buy uncool, defensive assets at deep discounts • Deconstructing value traps: Combining deep asset calculations (like Target's real estate or Honeywell's sum-of-the-parts setup) with near-term activist investor catalysts • Tuning out the macro noise: Why trying to factor in the Federal Reserve, geopolitical tensions with Iran, and election-year defense sector gyrations introduces unnecessary uncertainty • Old-school technical analysis: Reflecting on the pre-digital era of the 1970s and 1980s, where practitioners queued at the office door for weekly printed Mansfield chart binders • The critical baseline decision: Forcing yourself to define whether you are operating on a short-term trading lease or a long-term investment horizon

🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse
📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist

👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT
👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social
👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior
👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior

The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.