Fear, Greed, and Earnings | Charting 2026 with Mary Ellen McGonagle

In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Mary Ellen McGonagle, President of MEM Investment Research and former colleague of legendary investor William O'Neill. Recorded July 29th 2026.

Mary Ellen shares timeless investing wisdom on how fear and greed continue to drive the markets despite today's information overload. The conversation explores how to navigate the highly anticipated SpaceX IPO using historical chart analogs (like Meta/Facebook), the transition into "Phase 2" of the AI trade where actual revenue generation dictates market winners, and the critical importance of a strict sell discipline using daily RSI and moving averages. We also dig into seasonal summer volatility, identifying the "haves and have-nots" in the software sector, and a brilliant strategy for reverse-engineering passive ETF fund flows to uncover hidden individual stock breakouts.

If you've enjoyed today's episode, please check out these links! 

- How to Make Money in Stocks by William O'Neil https://amzn.to/4yK1bZ7

- Bull: A History of the Boom and Bust, 1982-2004 by Maggie Mahar

- MEM Investment Research: 
https://meminvestmentresearch.com/

📈 Topics Covered
• Timeless lessons from William O'Neill: Why fear, greed, and earnings remain the ultimate market drivers (the CANSLIM methodology)
• Navigating information overload: How to filter the modern financial "fire hose" down to actionable technical insights
• The SpaceX IPO playbook: Why waiting for profitability and a proper base formation beats chasing the initial euphoric spike
• Entering Phase 2 of the AI trade: The shift from speculative infrastructure to actualized revenue, usage, and eventual quantum computing
• Developing a strict sell discipline: Using daily RSI and 50-day moving averages to lock in profits on parabolic names like Micron
• Summer seasonality: Why August brings historical volatility and how the fall often sparks renewed tech leadership (the classic "payphone indicator")
• The software sector rotation: Differentiating between AI-enhancing "haves" (cybersecurity) and obsolete "have-nots"
• A clever stock-picking hack: Tracking passive ETF fund flows (like the MOO Agribusiness ETF) to identify strong underlying individual holdings
• Gauging true market breadth: Why the Nasdaq 100 Bullish Percent Index hitting the 30% floor signals a hidden bullish bounce despite index-level deterioration

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The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.