Tensions in the Middle East are soaring as Iran signals a “fully offensive” strategy while the U.S. refuses to extend the ceasefire, sending crude prices surging—Brent at $91.33 and WTI at $85.08. With Iran eyeing escalation in the Strait of Hormuz and Trump threatening Oman over any Iran deal on the strait, the geopolitical firestorm is fueling market volatility. Meanwhile, U.S. diesel crack spreads hit record highs above $100/barrel amid a severe supply crunch, as global refinery output plummets by 5 million barrels daily. Refineries prioritized gasoline and jet fuel for summer travel, and Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries triggered Russia’s diesel export ban—creating a perfect storm of supply disruption and soaring prices.
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