Wilfred Frost sits down with macro strategist Luke Gromen, founder of independent macro research firm Forest For The Trees (FFTT), for a wide-ranging conversation on the growing fragility of Western sovereign bond markets, the economic fallout from the Iran war, and why he believes gold is quietly replacing US Treasuries as the world's reserve asset.
Luke argues that markets continue to underestimate the implications of the Iran war, while acknowledging he underestimated China's ability to reduce its short-term oil import needs. The conversation turns to why rising western bond yields – not oil prices – are the bigger threat, with Luke laying out his "variant perception" that future risk-off events will trigger only brief yield declines before yields spike even higher as equities fall, a pattern he says has repeated since 2020. He details Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's roughly 4.4%-4.9% "pain threshold" on 10-year yields and warns that repeated policy retreats are steadily eroding US credibility as the backstop of the Treasury market.
He is deeply bearish on long bonds and believes equity markets are exceptionally complacent in the short term. However, he argues that any major sell-off is ultimately likely to become a buying opportunity, as the Fed and US Treasury will prioritise Treasury market functioning over fighting inflation. His advice: de-lever, be prepared to buy the (significant) market dip and importantly, own gold.
A central theme is Luke’s thesis that China isn't pushing the RMB as a dollar replacement – but rather promoting gold as the new global reserve asset in place of US Treasuries, using offshore yuan-clearing hubs in London, Switzerland, Dubai, and elsewhere to let trading partners convert RMB into gold. He cites China's accelerating gold import volumes and argues this dynamic points to a much higher long-term gold price, alongside a weaker dollar over time.
The discussion concludes with where Luke is finding investment opportunities. He highlights US electrical infrastructure, including ETFs like PAVE and GRID, and Japanese industrial equities as key beneficiaries of reshoring and grid rebuilding, while cautioning that equity markets remain complacent near-term even as he stays structurally bullish long-term. His overriding message to investors is simple: stay unlevered, own some gold, and ensure you're positioned to survive the volatility ahead so you can take advantage of what he believes will be a highly bullish decade for equities.
0:00 Intro
3:00 Iran War impact underpriced
5:45 China has more leverage than realised
6:54 Rates will move higher until something breaks
10:55 Yield tipping points
15:18 LT supply-demand dynamic for USTs
22:08 The Fed will step in
24:04 UK, Jap, Ger, Fra all at risk
26:57 Equities extremely complacent
28:20 Equities rational in dollar terms
32:53 Dollar weakness vs gold not other currencies
36:06 Own gold
40:48 China’s surprising aim with gold
45:50 If gold beats USTs….buy stocks
47:48 Buy electrical infrastructure & Japan
51:43 Conclusion - deleverage, own gold, buy dip
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