Wall Street’s calm is deceiving—VIX at its lowest in months signals investor complacency, but history warns: mid-August to mid-October, especially in midterm election years, brings turbulence. With Middle East tensions, Strait of Hormuz risks, and consumer strain looming, the market’s quietude masks brewing volatility. Past data shows S&P 500 pullbacks of at least 7% every midterm year during this stretch—this one’s an outlier… so far. Stay alert: smooth sailing may be ending.
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