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Luke Gromen, founder of Forest for the Trees, sites down with Max Wiethe to dissect the escalating crisis in the global bond market. Gromen argues that off-balance sheet liabilities, such as baby boomer retirements and surging veterans' benefits, are colliding with massive defense spending to force a dangerous inflationary spiral. He unpacks how "defense stimmies" from nations like Japan and Germany are turning historical creditors into aggressive bond sellers, putting immense pressure on yields. Throughout the conversation, Gromen also issues a stark warning about the AI tech bubble, the incoming policies of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, and why China's massive gold accumulation is a major red flag for the US dollar.
Read The Forest for the Trees: https://fftt-llc.com
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Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
00:52 Bond Selloff Explained
04:54 Debt Spiral Mechanics
08:22 Global Defense Stimulus
09:58 Real Yields Reality Check
13:20 Fed Chair Fantasy
15:34 Sponsor Break Fundrise
16:57 AI Trade Meets China
20:52 Labor Data Warning
23:02 AI Backstop Coming
26:28 No Long Bond Floor
30:44 Gold Revaluation Debate
35:27 China Gold Buying Surge
36:31 Oil Reserves And Leverage
39:19 Pain Contest with The West
43:22 Inequality and Instability
47:18 Dollar Down Yield Trap
50:03 Buy the Dip
52:12 Gold Targets and Gradualism
54:50 Bitcoin Lags Tech Risk
58:47 Warsh Fed No Good Options
01:02:55 What Breaks First?
01:05:33 Bonds Are the Biggest Bubble
