Iran has moved from survival to ambition to hard power — and it's reshaping the balance of power in the Middle East while Washington stays on the sidelines.

University of Chicago Professor Robert Pape returns for his weekly real-time breakdown of the U.S.-Iran conflict. This week: a tentative Iran-Oman deal on Strait of Hormuz traffic, Iran's new list of demands to reopen it, two overlapping defense coalitions forming across the Gulf and Red Sea, and Pape's enrichment-curve analysis on how close Iran actually is to a nuclear weapon — and why he says U.S. policy is teaching them to build one.

In this episode: – The Iran-Oman Strait agreement and Iran's demands to reopen Hormuz – The Mecca joint defense pact between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan – The Houthi war on Saudi oil and Iran's "resistance security belt" strategy – Why Gulf states are drifting out of America's orbit – Pape's case for why Iran is on track to become the fourth global power – The path to $6 gas, and why every major power in this conflict keeps walking into its own escalation trap – Audience questions on Europe's role and the Obama-era nuclear deal counterfactual

Got a question for Prof. Pape? Send it to askrobertpape@gmail.com for a shot at a future episode.

Robert Pape is a Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago and author of The Escalation Trap on Substack: escalationtrap.substack.com

More analysis every week on the Substack: substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg

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