Nubank ($NU) has 140 million customers, roughly 60% of Brazil's adult population, an efficiency ratio around 20% versus 40-60% at the legacy banks, and ROEs in the 30s. Evan Vanderveer of Vanshap Capital has owned it for four years and thinks the market is still treating it like a risky EM bank instead of what he thinks it is: a tech company that happens to hold deposits, with a founder (David Vélez) who controls it and a runway that runs through Brazil's $100 billion banking profit pool, Mexico, Colombia, and eventually the US.
My pushback is the Capital One question. Capital One was the smartest data-science lender in the room, IPO'd in 1994, went up 13x in 12 years, and then spent the next 20 as a mature bank that lagged the market. Nubank was built by ex-Capital One people, so is this 1994 or 2006? We also get into what the right cost of equity is for a Brazilian bank trading at high-teens earnings with a 30% ROE, whether MELI and Kaspi tell you EM fintech never gets a big multiple, the 13,000-customers-per-employee stat, Brazil NPLs at 15-year highs, the wave of senior departures, whether any banking fintech has ever expanded across borders, Vélez joining OpenAI's board, and my bigger worry that AI eventually commoditizes every financial product and competes away the 30% ROE.
This episode is sponsored by Trata: https://trata.com/nu. Trata is two sharp buy-siders hopping on an anonymized call to talk through the risks and upside of a stock, and it's the closest thing to this podcast in written form. Go to trata.com/nu for a free Trata transcript on Nubank that I read and used heavily prepping for this call.
Chapters:
(00:00) Intro and Trata sponsor read
(01:55) Evan Vanderveer / Vanshap Capital joins
(02:50) What is Nubank: 140M customers, 60% of Brazil, 20% efficiency ratio
(06:11) What the market is missing: deepening relationships, Mexico's ARPAC
(08:05) The Capital One DNA: QED, Nigel Morris, data science
(10:38) My pushback: is this Capital One in 2006, not 1994?
(13:00) Brazil's $100B profit pool, payroll loans, David Vélez's control
(15:09) Valuation: 30% ROE, high-teens P/E, and the right cost of equity for a Brazilian bank
(18:47) MELI and Kaspi: does EM fintech ever earn alpha?
(21:59) Fintech or bank? SoFi 2021, lending competition, too big to fail
(23:55) 13,000 customers per employee vs 1,300 at legacy banks
(26:15) Brazil risks: NPLs at 15-year highs, the Selic, October's election
(27:45) How much of the value is Brazil vs Mexico, Colombia, and the US
(29:42) Can a banking fintech expand across borders? The Citibank precedent
(31:03) Senior departures, the new CFO from Visa, capping US investment
(33:47) Buybacks in the low $12s and the risk of losing local expertise
(36:32) Valuation bet, business bet, or jockey bet?
(38:52) David Vélez joining OpenAI's board
(40:46) AI inside Nubank: 60% of inquiries, Devin agents, faster credit models
(42:44) Does AI commoditize banking and compete away the 30% ROE?
(46:54) The US expansion: God kings or a real niche?
(50:35) Closing thoughts
(52:07) Disclaimer
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Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
