Big opponent, more defending, more defcons. It's the obvious theory and I went into this summer believing it. So I tested it — every defender and midfielder with 1,500+ minutes from last season, 6,082 player-gameweeks. It doesn't hold. Here's what actually predicts a defensive contribution: the player, the role and one thing about his club nobody's talking about.
📊 In this episode: - What 6,082 player-gameweeks say about the defcon fixture theory - Defcon is a role, not a system - The one fixture rule we can make use of - 2026/27 projections: the risers and fallers
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