Right, a poll the Government should be worried about - whose fault is the economy?
The importance of this is based on the simple premise that this election is about one thing, which is the state of the place.
Is it getting better, or not?
Do you see a brighter future, or not?
Forget all the other issues and policies because they're frippery. All that matters is the state of your wallet, your finances, your lifestyle, your hopes and your aspirations.
The Government will argue they inherited a mess and it was so big that it takes time to turn it all around.
For a while they had us onside. We believed them, mainly because it was true.
History will show what labour did 2017-23, and particularly 2020-23 is one for the record books.
Things were coming right until the war then the momentum was lost.
It's now back, to a degree. GDP is growing and major sectors like manufacturing and services are in expansion. Jobs are still an issue and confidence is fragile.
So their job is to re-convince you that they had it in hand but Trump got in the way. "Just stick with us and she'll be right".
So, to the poll Horizon did in the early part of this month.
31% say yep, it's Trump's fault. 17% say it was Labour. But 29% say it's on this Government.
Now like all polls, you can read it a million ways. The 31% who say Trump and the 17% who say Labour makes 48%. That is not a majority.
31%, 17% and the 29% blaming the Government makes up 77%, so that’s 23% who don't know.
Between the "don’t knows" and the 48% you can talk your way to victory. But if the 23% of "don't knows" go with the 17%, at 40% that's a lot of people who don’t believe you and you're in trouble.
You could be positive and suggest that the 29% who think it's on the Government is not actually that many, so their argument is landing well.
But they would need to swing a few of the "don’t knows" their way to make sure.
Either way, this is what this vote comes down to. The evidence, although there and growing, is not cemented in enough yet to feel really confident.
On these numbers I would rather be the Government than not.
But on these numbers it is still all there to play for.
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